Four reasons why Ukraine’s intelligence chief is optimistic about offensive
Is the glass half full, or half empty? For Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukrainian military intelligence, it is half full. Or as he somewhat idiosyncratically puts it: “Is a pencil strong or weak? That depends on how you look at it.”
the counteroffensive is not yet completed. Ukraine still has time. There is still more than a month before the start of the mud season, as the “Economist” writes quoting Budanov.
the Russians’ first line of defense on the southern front has been breached in places, so the operation to cut off land links between Russia and Crimea could be completed before the onset of winter.
Russia was now already deploying reserve units that it planned to hold back until the end of October, he said. “Contrary to the Russian Federation’s statements, it does not have any strategic reserves,” Budanov said.
resources in material are exhausted, he said. Russia’s economy will last only until 2025, he says. The influx of weapons will dry up in 2026, “maybe even earlier,” he claims.
In fact, there is circumstantial evidence to support Budanov’s claims. For example, Russia has almost completely ceased its offensive activities in northeastern Ukraine, probably due to a lack of soldiers. Moreover, the number of air defense systems currently seems to be limited; otherwise, Ukraine’s continuously successful attacks on Crimea cannot be…
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